Playoff picture

With only five games left in the 2009 season, the GBL playoff picture is coming into focus.  Three of the four post-season spots have been locked up.  The Calgary Vipers, the overall best team in the North Division, will face the Edmonton Capitals (who compiled the second-best overall record) in the playoffs, while the South Division first-half winning St. George RoadRunners still wait to see who they will play in the first round.

The Armada can still make the playoffs if BOTH of the following scenarios play out:
1. The Long Beach Armada must win at least 3 of its final 5 games; AND
2. The Tucson Toros must lose at least 4 of their final 5 games to the St. George RoadRunners.

This would mean the RoadRunners would win the first- and second-halves, and the Armada would have the second-best overall record to earn the final playoff berth.

For a more detailed breakdown, here's a current look at the South Division's second half standings:

South Division 2nd Half	W	L	PCT	GB	Streak	Last 10
Tucson Toros	19	11	0.633	-	1L	7-3
St. George RoadRunners	20	17	0.541	2.5	1W	5-5
Yuma Scorpions	19	19	0.500	4	1W	6-4
Long Beach Armada	16	17	0.485	4.5	2W	6-4
Orange County Flyers	16	18	0.471	5	2L	2-8

The Armada is the only team still alive to make the playoffs other than the first-place Toros. Long Beach has five games left in the regular season as do the RoadRunners and Toros who finish the season with all their games against each other. For the Armada to reach the playoffs for a GBL-record fourth time, the RoadRunners must win the second half to clinch an overall title like the Calgary Vipers did in the north division. For St. George to win the second half, the RoadRunners must win four of their final five games against the Toros.

If the RoadRunners win both halves, the second South Division playoff spot will be awarded to the team with the second-best overall record.

Currently, here are the South Division overall standings:

South Division Overall	W	L	PCT	GB	Streak	Last 10
St. George RoadRunners	45	32	0.584	-	1W	5-5
Tucson Toros	36	32	0.529	4.5	1L	7-3
Long Beach Armada	36	35	0.507	6	2W	6-4
Orange County Flyers	33	383	0.465	9	2L	2-8
Yuma Scorpions	29	46	0.387	15	1W	6-4

If the RoadRunners do win four of their final five games to clinch the second half, that would leave the Tucson Toros with an overall record of 37-36 for a winning percentage of 0.507 on the season. Long Beach would have to win at least three of its final five games to finish at 39-37 on the year (a 0.513 winning percentage) for the second-best overall record and the final playoff berth. If the Armada only wins two of the final five games, the team would finish 38-38, and the Toros would earn the final playoff spot with a better overall record.

So the simplified version of how the Armada can make the playoffs:
Armada must win at least 3 of final 5 games, AND Tucson must lose at least 4 of final 5 games.

Here are the remaining schedules for Long Beach, St. George and Tucson:

Remaining Games	Long Beach Armada	St. George RoadRunners	Tucson Toros
Thursday, August 27	@ Orange County	Tucson	@ St. George
Friday, August 28	Victoria	@ Tucson	St. George
Saturday, August 29	Victoria	@ Tucson	St. George
Sunday, August 30	Victoria	@ Tucson	St. George
Monday, August 31	Victoria	@ Tucson	St. George