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Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Playoff Projections: How the Armada can make the playoffs

With only 12 games left in the 2009 Golden Baseball League regular season, here is a breakdown of the South Division playoff picture. The St. George RoadRunners had the best record in the first half of the season, clinching one of the two South Division playoff berths. If the RoadRunners win the second half as well, the team with the second-best overall record will face them in the playoffs.

Here are the current South Division SECOND HALF standings as of today:

South DivisionWinsLosesWin %Games
Tucson Toros1490.609-12
Orange County Flyers15120.556112
St. George RoadRunners*16140.5331.512
Yuma Scorpions15160.48438
Long Beach Armada12140.4623.512

*First Half Winner

The winner of the second half will be determined by winning percentage because of the unbalanced scheduled created when the Tijuana Potros were put on hold. Basically because each team does not play the same number of games, the winner is based on winning percentage, not necessary the number of wins a team has.

Therefore, in looking at the remaining 12 games (or 8 for Yuma), in order for the Armada to make the playoffs, it's not just about narrowing the gap of being 3.5 games back, the winning percentage for each team ahead of Long Beach is the key factor.

If the Long Beach Armada were to win 9 of its final 12 games to make the playoffs, the team would have a final record of 21-17 for a winning percentage of 0.553 in the second half. That would mean each other team in the South Division would need to see its winner percentage slip below that mark. Here is the breakdown...

Where Teams Can Finish

South DivisionGames
If they
If they
2nd Half
2nd Half
Tucson Toros126620150.571
St. George RoadRunners*128424180.571
Orange County Flyers127522170.564
Yuma Scorpions87122170.564
Long Beach Armada129321170.553
St. George RoadRunners*127523190.548
Tucson Toros125719160.543
Orange County Flyers126621180.538
Yuma Scorpions86221180.538

So what does it all mean?

It means if the Armada does go on to win nine of its final 12 games, then it would need each of the other teams in the South Division to finish with the records and winner percentages listed below the Armada's 21-17 (0.553) mark. Basically the team needs to win four more games than Tucson the rest of the way (thus being 3.5 games back of the Toros right now).

Now those teams could win more or less games than the numbers I put up there. Those are just to show - relative to the Armada getting very hot - the limits of where other teams in the South Division can finish to either barely make or barely miss the playoffs ahead of or behind the Long Beach Armada.

1 comment:

El "Jefe" said...

Too many "if's for the boys to make the playoffs. If, If, and know what they say about "if"?

"If my Aunt had balls....she would be my Uncle"

It's been a fun season again. Yes, a little disapointing, but it's been fun.

Seen some great baseball played by all teams. Everything from great pitching, great hitting to great defensive playes worthy of ESPN top 10 webgems. Johnny Kaplen's in the park HR. His great layout catches in the outfield. Andy Bouche's great defense behind the plate. Throwing runner's out game after game. Omar Bramasco's range at short stop. Ben Fox striking out the side twice in a game. I'm sure I forgot other stuff, but you get the Idea.
The fans have been great. Supportive, loud, vocal, and somewhat obnoxious. ( I Love It!!!)

The season is not over yet, but I don't see the boys making the playoffs. As a true baseball fan, I don't want to see any of these guys back in the GBL next season. They all are too good and need to be playing in affiliated ball, but if they should come's all good also.
See you at the yard!!!